What the China-Taiwan Conflict is REALLY About

[Dr Strangelove]

China’s Ministry of Commerce has for the first time activated its 2021 Blocking Rules, ordering all Chinese firms and individuals not to comply with U.S. sanctions targeting five independent Chinese oil refineries accused of purchasing Iranian crude.

Beijing called the U.S. measures, imposed under two executive orders, an “unjustified” and “improper” use of extraterritorial law.

The move puts multinational companies operating in both markets in direct legal conflict: compliance with U.S. sanctions now risks violating Chinese law, and vice versa. Global banks and firms with dollar exposure face secondary sanctions risk if they continue dealing with the affected refineries.

Analysts describe the order as a significant step toward competing legal frameworks for global trade, accelerating the path to potential economic “decoupling” between the two powers.

[Dr Strangelove]

"We will not defend Taiwan, and we are halting arms shipments to the island, since they themselves are attempting to instigate a war against China"—Trump's words from a recent interview can be interpreted in precisely this way.

The Ukraine scenario is repeating itself. In the event of a Chinese attack, Trump will likely go a step further and ask: "Taiwan, why did you start a war when you held absolutely no cards?"

[Dr Strangelove]

A ‘red line’: Chinese embassy condemns Canadian MP’s visit to Taiwan