IRANIAN CITIES BURN AMID REBELLION
- Dr Strangelove
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Re: IRANIAN CITIES BURN AMID REBELLION
It can be dangerous to believe things just because you want them to be true. - Sagan
Cynicism is acceptance
Cynicism is acceptance
- Dr Strangelove
- Posts: 11395
- Joined: Wed May 08, 2024 4:50 pm
Re: IRANIAN CITIES BURN AMID REBELLION
It can be dangerous to believe things just because you want them to be true. - Sagan
Cynicism is acceptance
Cynicism is acceptance
- Dr Strangelove
- Posts: 11395
- Joined: Wed May 08, 2024 4:50 pm
Re: IRANIAN CITIES BURN AMID REBELLION
It can be dangerous to believe things just because you want them to be true. - Sagan
Cynicism is acceptance
Cynicism is acceptance
- Dr Strangelove
- Posts: 11395
- Joined: Wed May 08, 2024 4:50 pm
Re: IRANIAN CITIES BURN AMID REBELLION
It can be dangerous to believe things just because you want them to be true. - Sagan
Cynicism is acceptance
Cynicism is acceptance
- Dr Strangelove
- Posts: 11395
- Joined: Wed May 08, 2024 4:50 pm
Re: IRANIAN CITIES BURN AMID REBELLION
Regan was forced to flee Lebanon in 1982 and the political lesson from that has been applied to the current regimes strategy. Cause enough disruption as to make war unsustainable. A few problems is that China is able to still access oil and it is US allies that are in the line of fire. The domestic political motivation is to distract from the epstein files and not winning the next election so their calculus is off.
It can be dangerous to believe things just because you want them to be true. - Sagan
Cynicism is acceptance
Cynicism is acceptance
- Dr Strangelove
- Posts: 11395
- Joined: Wed May 08, 2024 4:50 pm
Re: IRANIAN CITIES BURN AMID REBELLION
It can be dangerous to believe things just because you want them to be true. - Sagan
Cynicism is acceptance
Cynicism is acceptance
- Dr Strangelove
- Posts: 11395
- Joined: Wed May 08, 2024 4:50 pm
Re: IRANIAN CITIES BURN AMID REBELLION
A tanker just exploded off the coast of Kuwait.
UKMTO confirmed it at 10:40 tonight. Large explosion on the port side. Oil in the water. A small craft was seen leaving the scene at speed. The crew are safe. The hull is not.
30 nautical miles southeast of Kuwait’s Mubarak Al Kabeer port. Which puts it directly inside the Khor al-Zubair lightering zone, where Iraq loads its heavy fuel oil for export.
Read that again.
This is not an Iranian vessel. This is not a military target. This is the loading area for Iraqi oil exports, operated by a country that is not a party to this war, in waters that were supposed to be outside the conflict zone.
The Gulf is no longer a conflict zone with a perimeter.
It is a hunting ground with no perimeter.
In the last seven days: a US submarine sank an Iranian frigate near Sri Lanka. An Iranian corvette burned at Bandar Abbas. Qatar’s LNG terminals went dark. An Iranian ballistic missile was intercepted over Turkey. Tonight, a tanker exploded in Kuwait’s export corridor and a small boat disappeared into the dark.
Nobody has claimed this one yet.
They may not need to. The message is already being received by every tanker captain, every shipping insurer, and every commodity desk in the world.
The Strait of Hormuz carries 20% of global oil. The Khor al-Zubair corridor carries Iraqi exports. The Indian Ocean carried the IRIS Dena three days ago.
There is no safe water in this region anymore.
The market is pricing disruption. It should be pricing closure.
Those are not the same number.
It can be dangerous to believe things just because you want them to be true. - Sagan
Cynicism is acceptance
Cynicism is acceptance
- Dr Strangelove
- Posts: 11395
- Joined: Wed May 08, 2024 4:50 pm
Re: IRANIAN CITIES BURN AMID REBELLION
UST IN: 161 rocket alerts just fired across central Israel simultaneously.
5.9 million people reached for shelter at 2:26 in the morning.
Iran launched ballistic missiles at Tel Aviv today. Hezbollah sent drones from the north at the same time. The combined barrage was a deliberate attempt to split Israeli air defenses across two fronts and exhaust the interceptor stockpile in a single coordinated wave.
That is not a retaliatory strike. That is a saturation doctrine.
Here is the number that matters more than the interception rate.
On February 28, Iran launched 20 missile barrages in a single day. By March 3, that had fallen to six. Tonight’s combined attack tells you why that decline happened and why it is dangerous to misread it as weakness.
Iran is not running out of will. Iran is destroying interceptors.
Every successful interception over Tel Aviv costs Israel an Arrow missile or an Iron Dome battery. Iran’s launchers cost a fraction of what Israel’s interceptors cost. If you fire enough, eventually the math flips. That is the entire logic of saturation warfare and it has been Iran’s doctrine since June 2025.
Israel has destroyed 300 Iranian launchers since the war began. But launchers are not the only variable. The interceptor stockpile is the other one, and nobody is publishing that number.
Tonight’s coordinated two-front wave was specifically designed to drain both simultaneously.
The question is not whether Israel can intercept tonight’s missiles.
The question is how many nights like this the stockpile can absorb before the math changes.
That answer is classified. And it is the only number that actually matters right now.
5.9 million people reached for shelter at 2:26 in the morning.
Iran launched ballistic missiles at Tel Aviv today. Hezbollah sent drones from the north at the same time. The combined barrage was a deliberate attempt to split Israeli air defenses across two fronts and exhaust the interceptor stockpile in a single coordinated wave.
That is not a retaliatory strike. That is a saturation doctrine.
Here is the number that matters more than the interception rate.
On February 28, Iran launched 20 missile barrages in a single day. By March 3, that had fallen to six. Tonight’s combined attack tells you why that decline happened and why it is dangerous to misread it as weakness.
Iran is not running out of will. Iran is destroying interceptors.
Every successful interception over Tel Aviv costs Israel an Arrow missile or an Iron Dome battery. Iran’s launchers cost a fraction of what Israel’s interceptors cost. If you fire enough, eventually the math flips. That is the entire logic of saturation warfare and it has been Iran’s doctrine since June 2025.
Israel has destroyed 300 Iranian launchers since the war began. But launchers are not the only variable. The interceptor stockpile is the other one, and nobody is publishing that number.
Tonight’s coordinated two-front wave was specifically designed to drain both simultaneously.
The question is not whether Israel can intercept tonight’s missiles.
The question is how many nights like this the stockpile can absorb before the math changes.
That answer is classified. And it is the only number that actually matters right now.
It can be dangerous to believe things just because you want them to be true. - Sagan
Cynicism is acceptance
Cynicism is acceptance
- Dr Strangelove
- Posts: 11395
- Joined: Wed May 08, 2024 4:50 pm
Re: IRANIAN CITIES BURN AMID REBELLION
As much as the zealots in Israel under bibi are pushing for war we must not forget that in the US there is also a faction that are pushing for their own ends and they are in fact the majority of the MAGA base. This in and of itself should be a warning for any country trying to deal with the US as they are ruled by people who deal in red meat for the masses that have little conviction themselves so there is no way to make a deal in good faith as they are rabid and slaves to power.
It can be dangerous to believe things just because you want them to be true. - Sagan
Cynicism is acceptance
Cynicism is acceptance
- Dr Strangelove
- Posts: 11395
- Joined: Wed May 08, 2024 4:50 pm
Re: IRANIAN CITIES BURN AMID REBELLION
It can be dangerous to believe things just because you want them to be true. - Sagan
Cynicism is acceptance
Cynicism is acceptance