Netflix to buy HBO

[Dr Strangelove]

[Dr Strangelove]

[Dr Strangelove]

Paramount just bought a $111 billion media empire with a $12 billion market cap.

Read that again. Paramount’s market cap is roughly $12 billion. Warner Bros. Discovery’s enterprise value in this deal is $111 billion. David Ellison is buying a company nearly 10x his own company’s size.

How? Larry Ellison’s net worth: $201 billion. He’s personally guaranteeing the equity commitment. Bank of America, Citi, and Apollo are providing $57.5 billion in debt financing. Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund, Abu Dhabi’s L’imad Holdings, and the Qatar Investment Authority are providing equity. The combined entity will carry over $90 billion in debt.

This tells you everything about what actually happened. Netflix offered $83 billion for the studios and streaming (the good parts). Paramount offered $111 billion for everything (including the dying cable networks nobody else wanted). Netflix looked at the math to match Paramount and said “at this price, the deal is no longer financially attractive.” That’s Netflix-speak for “we’re not overpaying for linear TV in 2026.”

Netflix stock jumped 10% on the news it lost. Paramount rose 5%. The market is telling you which company made the better decision.

What makes this really interesting: Paramount promised $6 billion in cost synergies. That’s code for mass layoffs across two studios, two streaming platforms, and overlapping cable networks. CNN and CBS News under one roof. HBO Max and Paramount+ merged. They’ll need those savings because the debt service on $90 billion will be brutal.

David Ellison attended Trump’s State of the Union as Lindsey Graham’s guest on Tuesday. Ted Sarandos was at the White House Thursday afternoon. Both were lobbying. Ellison won. And his father’s close ties to Trump will matter when DOJ reviews a deal that puts CBS, CNN, HBO, Nickelodeon, Comedy Central, MTV, and TNT under one owner.

The real story: a 42-year-old with a rocky box office track record just assembled the largest media conglomerate in history, financed by his father’s fortune, Middle Eastern sovereign wealth, and $57.5 billion in bank debt. Netflix walked away richer. The question is whether Paramount can service the debt load while linear TV revenue keeps declining or whether this becomes the most expensive content library acquisition ever assembled on borrowed time.

[al_keda]

So more subscriptions I will never have,