IRANIAN CITIES BURN AMID REBELLION

[Dr Strangelove]

JUST IN: The entire petrochemical arc of the Persian Gulf is on fire, offline, or suspended. Count the countries. Iran: 85 percent of petrochemical production destroyed by Israeli strikes on Asaluyeh and Mahshahr. Qatar: two LNG trains and 17 percent of export capacity offline for three to five years after Iranian missiles hit Ras Laffan. UAE: Borouge polyolefin plant suspended, Habshan gas complex shut with 80 percent of domestic gas supply offline, Asab degassing station burning since March 29th, Bu Hasa oil field hit. Saudi Arabia: fires at Jubail Industrial City after Iranian missiles struck the SABIC petrochemical hub, one of the largest integrated chemical complexes on earth. Kuwait: airport fuel tanks ablaze, two power and desalination units offline, Oil Ministry facilities hit, 15 American servicemembers injured at Ali Al Salem air base. Bahrain: GPIC petrochemical units attacked, BAPCO storage tank fire. Six countries. One war. Every major energy producer on the Persian Gulf has taken damage.

The global numbers are now quantifiable. C&EN reports 12 percent of global ethylene capacity is offline. The Dow CEO told Fortune that approximately 20 percent of global petrochemical capacity is blocked by the Hormuz closure and strikes combined. The Middle East operates 193 petrochemical complexes supplying 22 percent of global output. The GCC alone accounts for 12 percent, or 150 million tonnes per year. Asia’s naphtha feedstock supply has been throttled by 7 to 8 million tonnes. S&P Global estimates 10 to 11 million tonnes of paraxylene production lost. These are not projections. They are current measurements of capacity that is not producing.

The war did not discriminate. Israel struck Iran’s plants to deny IRGC revenue and missile chemistry. Iran struck Gulf plants to impose symmetric pain on the countries hosting American forces and benefiting from the scarcity premium. The UAE’s damage came from the debris of its own successful interceptions falling onto the facilities the interceptors were protecting. Kuwait’s power and desalination plants were hit by Iranian drones while 15 American troops at Ali Al Salem took shrapnel from another. Saudi Arabia’s Jubail, which produces methanol, ethylene glycol, and fertiliser feedstocks for global markets, burned overnight. The fires in Bahrain’s BAPCO storage were extinguished. The fires in Jubail had not been when this was written.

The molecule does not care about the flag over the facility. Polyethylene from Borouge and polyethylene from Asaluyeh and polyethylene from Jubail all serve the same Asian markets. All three sources are now offline or suspended. The syringe wrapper in Dhaka, the water pipe in Jakarta, the food container in Manila, the fertiliser pellet in Lahore, all of them originate in the Persian Gulf’s petrochemical arc, and the arc is dark from Asaluyeh to Jubail to Ras Laffan to Ruwais to Shuaiba.

Hegseth said the most recent overnight strikes on Iran are the largest since day one. Tomorrow will be bigger. Iran’s response has been to hit every Gulf nation hosting American assets or profiting from the war. The reciprocal destruction is not collateral. It is doctrine. Israel degrades Iran’s chemistry. Iran degrades the Gulf’s processing. Both sides lose capacity. Asia loses supply. And the 12 to 20 percent of global petrochemical output that is now offline will not return until the war ends, the mines are cleared, the heat exchangers are manufactured, and the utilities are rebuilt. That timeline is not weeks. It is years. And Tuesday is today. Europe markets might open in to a bloodbath.

[Dr Strangelove]

Saudi accounts are restricted from posting about strikes inside the country, so some shift to the comments and claim it came from Iraq or try to push community notes.

The reality remains: two Iranian ballistic missiles struck the Jubail Industrial Complex.

For context, Jubail spans over 1,000 square kilometers with more than 150 industrial facilities, accounting for roughly 7% to 12% of Saudi GDP and about 50% of total foreign direct investment.

It processes around 500,000 to 700,000 barrels per day and hosts major steel, aluminum, fertilizer, and chemical plants, supported by large power stations.

This footage is confirmed and not old or from Iraq.

You may see screenshots circulating that claim to be from Reuters in 2024, but if you look further into them, they are FAKE.

[Dr Strangelove]

IDF Spokesperson:

The IDF struck another petrochemical complex in Shiraz - one of the few remaining complexes for producing essential chemical components for explosives and materials for ballistic missiles in Iran

The Air Force, guided by Military Intelligence, completed yesterday (Monday) a wide-ranging strike mission in several areas in Iran targeting key infrastructures of the Iranian terror regime.

As part of the mission, the IDF struck another petrochemical plant in Shiraz used by the armed forces in Iran to produce nitric acid, a necessary substance for manufacturing explosives and other materials in ballistic missile development processes.
This deepens the damage to the military capabilities of the regime, focusing on the production capabilities of weapons that relied on the components from the plant.

This is one of the few remaining complexes for producing essential chemical components for explosives and materials for ballistic missiles in Iran, after the IDF struck the largest petrochemical plant in Iran as well as the petrochemical complex in Mahshahr.

Simultaneously, the IDF struck a large site of the ballistic missile array in northwestern Iran. From this site, soldiers of the array launched dozens of missiles toward the territory of the State of Israel.
The site was attacked while soldiers and commanders of the missile array were operating inside to advance and carry out terror activities against the State of Israel and other countries.

[Dr Strangelove]

[Dr Strangelove]

[Dr Strangelove]

Iran has become a toxic ally for Russia

Arab monarchies are becoming increasingly irritated with Moscow over its stance on Iran.

Russia did not support the UN resolution on reopening the Strait of Hormuz and opposed the use of force against Tehran.

For the Gulf states, this is critical. Almost all of their exports pass through the strait, which is now effectively paralyzed. Oil shipments have already dropped by tens of percent, with losses reaching billions of dollars per day.

Additional frustration comes from reports that Russia is assisting Iran militarily — including intelligence sharing and drone technology.

Moscow denies it, but few believe these assurances. As a result, the Kremlin risks damaging relations with wealthy oil monarchies it had only recently begun to rebuild ties with.

[Dr Strangelove]

[Dr Strangelove]

[Dr Strangelove]

[Dr Strangelove]

TLDR: Iran is focused on a war they can win and the US is focused on winning headlines. He also suspects the recent purge of high ranking officers and the rescue of an unnamed downed weapons officer that cost 300 million in destroyed aircraft was actually a raid on an Iranian nuclear power plant that failed. The people who were fired were the ones warning that it would be impossible.