Ukraine war thread

[Dr Strangelove]

Putin needs perpetual war to survive in power in Russia, period. That means never-ending war in Ukraine, and/or expanded war in Europe. Nothing he says changes the fact that he won’t stop until stopped, and pretending otherwise is delaying necessary action.

[al_keda]

The war will end when Putin talks to Lenin.

[Dr Strangelove]

The far-right AfD is projected to win 44% in Saxony-Anhalt, more than doubling its 2021 result. The governing CDU collapses from 37.1% to just 18.5%.

The AfD is now within reach of an outright majority in the state parliament.

They're drinking champagne in the Kremlin.


in 6 months France will do the same. The old order is collapsing the new era is emerging. This is the time of monsters.

[Dr Strangelove]

There's no "win-win" with cancer. Putin's "aspirations" are the destruction of Ukraine and perpetual war on Europe. We know that because that is what he's doing.

[Dr Strangelove]

Germany's far-right AfD wins Saxony-Anhalt with a record 44.5%, crushing Merz’s CDU at 18.5%. Rival parties refuse to form a coalition, likely blocking AfD from power. The pro-Russian party wants an immediate halt to Ukraine aid, an end to sanctions, and the deportation of Ukrainian refugees.

[Dr Strangelove]

Alice Weidel from AfD

1- She is against homosexuals - she is a lesbian.
2- She is against immigration - her partner is an immigrant.
3- She is against adoption of children by homosexuals - she has 2 adopted daughters.
4- She pretends to be a German patriot but lives in Switzerland.

The Nazi salute, the call to hide it and the laugh tell you everything you need to know about the AfD. German Nazis are returning to power and they are only half-heartedly trying to hide it.

[Dr Strangelove]

Oil Refineries: Ukraine continues to successfully target Russian oil infrastructure, including the Ryazan refinery (0:14) and the Adler oil depot in Sochi (1:07). These strikes, combined with a broader logistics lockdown, are impacting Russia's fuel supply, leading to reports of gasoline shortages (3:52).
Battlefield Status: Russia's territorial gains have significantly slowed (12:00-12:45). Ukraine utilizes a "drone wall" and effective targeting of logistics nodes to disrupt Russian infiltration groups (11:15-12:00).
Naval & Air Conflict: There is reporting on a fire aboard a Russian icebreaker (6:15) and a potential drone strike on the sanctioned cargo ship Lady Maria in the Mediterranean (6:35). Additionally, Ukraine faces challenges with jet-powered drones, leading F-16 pilots to rely on vulcan cannons when air-to-air missiles are scarce (15:43).
Diplomatic Visit:

Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner traveled to Moscow to meet with Vladimir Putin (17:24, 20:14) and later visited Kyiv to meet with President Zelenskyy (25:00-26:45). The video criticizes these meetings as lacking official diplomatic standing and suggests they are driven by potential personal business interests rather than effective peace negotiations (21:28-23:45).
International Support:

Germany has announced a significant aid package for energy infrastructure and drone production (30:36-31:00).
Spain is providing further support with air defense interceptors

[Dr Strangelove]

[Dr Strangelove]

AfD won the elections in Saxony-Anhalt and now may get the worst thing that can happen to an extreme populist party—responsibility.

From a Polish perspective, this could be an incredibly intriguing experiment. Because the AfD mechanism is well known to us: everything is simple, the guilty parties are clearly identified, all it takes is to push aside the "system," restrict migration, deal with the elites, and the state will start working. Except that after the elections, TikTok ends, and Excel begins.

Saxony-Anhalt is the ideal place for such a test. The state is aging, losing residents and people of working age, struggling with access to doctors, care, schools, transport, and maintaining public services outside major cities. On top of that, there's weak economic dynamism, a threatened industrial sector, and rising municipal debt. These are structural problems that can't be solved by pointing fingers at an enemy.

And here's where the first AfD paradox begins. One response to the labor shortage is economic migration. Saxony-Anhalt already relies more heavily on foreign workers today. If AfD truly starts implementing a policy of deterring migrants, it could deepen precisely the problem that residents feel in clinics, nursing homes, workplaces, or local businesses. The slogan "fewer foreigners" will collide with the question: who exactly is supposed to work here?

The second paradox is financial. AfD promises lower burdens alongside expanded benefits, family support, investments, and improved public services. IWH calculated even before the elections that AfD's program alone leaves at least a 2.2 billion euro annual gap. This is a classic populist political product: everyone gets more, no one pays more, and the money will appear after eliminating "waste." In Poland, we know this construct very well.

The most interesting part, however, will be what AfD won't be able to do. The state government doesn't set German foreign policy, can't unilaterally withdraw Germany from the EU, change federal energy policy, or implement much of its anti-immigration revolution. So when problems persist, AfD will face a choice: admit that reality is more complicated than the campaign, or find another culprit—Berlin, Brussels, the courts, the media, and the "deep state." In Poland, we know this stage too.

That's why I wouldn't assume that governing will automatically kill AfD. Populism can survive its own ineffectiveness if it convincingly persuades voters that failure is proof of a conspiracy at work. PiS, after eight years in power, can still position itself as a victim of elites, the European Union, courts, and the media. Konfederacja also builds its appeal on simple answers to problems whose solutions, once in real power, would require compromises, taxes, administration, and unpopular decisions.

But Saxony-Anhalt could show something important for Poland. Populism is best tested not by asking if the leader speaks compellingly, but whether, after taking responsibility, it improves the citizen's daily experience. Is it easier to find a doctor? Does the school have teachers? Does the company find workers? Does the municipality have money? Do investors come, or do they flee? Do the young stay? This is where the culture war ends, and classic politics begins.

The biggest threat, however, is that AfD could fail the exam on the economy and public services while passing the exam on capturing the state. The state government has real influence over education, culture, administration, police, funding for organizations, and local institutions. A populist can thus fail to fix the clinic but quickly rebuild the institutional environment so that the next citizen's choice happens in worse democratic conditions. This we also know and should treat very seriously.

Conclusion: The experiment in Saxony-Anhalt can weaken AfD only if its governance is measured by outcomes, not successive narratives. For Poland, this is a test of a broader thesis: whether a populist voter will change their mind when they see the difference between an easy promise and a difficult state, on an external example. There's no guarantee. Populism doesn't die from clashing with reality if it can effectively rewrite that reality into another story about enemies.

Citizen Experience Rating: 4/10

Recommendation: Polish democratic parties should watch Saxony-Anhalt very closely and stop responding to populists solely with outrage. Every simple promise must be reduced to four questions: how much does it cost, who has the competence, who will execute it, and what will be the measurable effect for the citizen. AfD could become a living laboratory for Poland, showing what happens to a populist political product after clicking the "implement" button.


TLDR AFD is Germany version of Daniel Smith. They will ruin Germany and blame it all on others.


The Alternative for Germany program in Saxony-Anhalt:

• Separate classes for disabled people and refugees
• Abolition of compulsory schooling
• Reduction of study of Nazism in school
• Abolition of the "school without racism" program
• Ban on mention of the LGBTQ+ world in school
• Civic defense militias on the streets
• "Expulsion and remigration offensive"
• Abolition of the right to asylum
• Restoration of ius sanguinis
• Crackdown on "sexual deviations" and "non-reproductive lifestyles"
• Restoration of full relations with Russia
• Revocation of contract with public television
• Removal from the Church of the church tax

[Dr Strangelove]

Imagine for a second, just for a brief second, that what happened in the German elections had happened in Ukraine, with people voting for the openly far right. You would stomp us into the dirt, your press would destroy us, your societies would refuse to support our resistance, and they would say we deserve to be invaded.

​Your societies, in fact, already do all that to us. The only thing saving us from that becoming the majority view is that we have never had a far-right party in our parliament.

​But Germany? For Germany, it's fine. It's also fine for the rest of the West to have the far right, sit at home in complete safety, and argue online that Ukraine needs to be "denazified."

​The West has a far-right problem. A big fucking one.