IRANIAN CITIES BURN AMID REBELLION

[Dr Strangelove]

Geopolitical Impact: The Houthis have consolidated their position near the BAM, improving their surveillance and strike capabilities against shipping traffic, which complicates transit security for commercial vessels (0:05:33-0:08:08).
Supply Chain Disruptions: Global shipping lanes are being impacted by a combination of Houthi actions in the Red Sea, continued insecurity in the Strait of Hormuz, and a notable uptick in maritime piracy off the coast of Somalia (0:09:01-0:12:30).
Energy Markets: The Saudi East-West Pipeline recently suffered damage from a drone strike, forcing changes in how Saudi crude is exported, often relying on U.S.-escorted transits through the Strait of Hormuz (0:13:34-0:16:45).
Rising Costs: Tanker charter rates, particularly for Very Large Crude Carriers (VLCCs), have surged dramatically—with some routes exceeding $1 million per day—due to heightened risk premiums and insurance costs (0:18:23-0:21:36).
Global Fallout: The shipping industry faces a confluence of challenges, including port congestion at the Suez Canal, potential bans on seafarer deployments in high-risk zones, and concerns over the availability and cost of bunker fuel (0:21:36-0:26:44).


Red sea on lockdown. US has no idea how bad this is.

[Dr Strangelove]

BREAKING: Repairs to Saudi Arabia's East-West oil pipeline will take far longer than a month due to a lack of spare parts, with the pumping infrastructure catastrophically damaged and at least 8 locations on the pipe hit, per initial reports citing sources inside Saudi Arabia.

That leaves Saudi Arabia set to run out of crude oil stocks for export within five to seven days, taking around 4 million barrels per day, ~4% of global supply, off the market, per three industry sources to Reuters.

Some repaired points were struck again, using up the spares and undoing the work. Yanbu has about a week of stocks left on the kingdom's only export route that does not pass through Hormuz.



Bonesaw is trapped and he will be eaten alive by his own people.

[Dr Strangelove]

BREAKING: The United States is being cut out of talks over the Strait of Hormuz.

Gulf diplomats and Iranian officials will meet Monday in Muscat to negotiate a framework for reopening the world’s most critical oil chokepoint — while Washington will be completely absent from the table, per CNN.

Iran has made clear that reopening is not automatic. Tehran is demanding U.S. compliance with the June Islamabad memorandum before regular tanker passage resumes, while its proposed routing system would place the Gulf’s entry lane entirely inside Iranian territorial waters.

The Omani plan offers Gulf states a way around Iran’s original demand for mandatory transit tolls through voluntary payments tied to navigation and environmental protection.

Meanwhile, Washington is reportedly telling Gulf partners that future negotiations should focus on Iran’s nuclear program, not Hormuz.

That leaves America’s closest Gulf partners negotiating directly with Tehran over the chokepoint that controls a huge share of global oil flows.

Saudi Arabia’s bypass pipeline is shut down. Yanbu has been attacked. Hormuz remains closed.

And now the Gulf is negotiating its own way out — without the United States.

Washington isn’t leading the talks.

It isn’t even in the room.

[Dr Strangelove]

BREAKING: Costco is now rationing motor oil for due to the Iranian war, limiting members to one transaction and a maximum of two units every seven days.

[Dr Strangelove]

MORE BREAKING: Increasing indications that Saudi Arabia will be cancelling BOTH September AND October deliveries of oil.

If this proves to be true (September is confirmed), we can expect the global energy markets to reach the $120+/Barrel territory…

This is NOT SUSTAINABLE.

[Dr Strangelove]

The US is considering halting diesel exports.

The US is the world's largest diesel exporter... Russia, the 2nd largest, has already halted exports.

A US export ban would send global diesel prices even higher and force countries like Japan to dump USTs to fund their domestic needs.

In other words, imposing an export ban on diesel would blow up the UST market.

There are no easy solutions anymore.

We don't own enough hard assets for what's coming.

[Dr Strangelove]

MORE: Libya may be set to declare force majeure (cancellations) of oil deliveries after protests in the country have suspended oil production in the country.

While it is easy to try to dismiss this as "it's just Libya", this yet ANOTHER blow to the global energy markets that have seen Ansarallah take effective control over the Bab al-Mandeb Strait, the Saudi East-West Pipeline (along with multiple other energy infrastructures) destroyed, Saudi cancellation of September (and potentially October) deliveries to Europe, and a global economy that is short now more than two BILLION barrels of oil as a result of the United States' reckless decision to launch a war against Iran.

We're seeing increasing signs that the global economy is BREAKING under the compounding pressures it has faced over the past 6.5 months, and this is yet another weight that the world will attempt to desperately shoulder.

[Dr Strangelove]

Houthi Offensive: Houthi forces recently captured the strategic port of Mocha and secured Yemen's entire Red Sea coastline (0:20, 8:49). A significant tactical victory was the capture of Perim Island (also known as Mayun), which is located in the middle of the Bab al-Mandab strait (0:08, 10:43). This position grants the Houthis a superior vantage point to monitor and threaten global shipping moving between the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden (11:06).
Energy Crisis: The Houthis have effectively created a selective naval blockade targeting Saudi interests (12:30). This is particularly dangerous for Saudi Arabia, which had been relying on its East-West pipeline to transport oil to the port of Yanbu on the Red Sea to bypass the Strait of Hormuz, where Iran had been causing disruptions (0:38, 13:30). The East-West pipeline itself was also attacked, further crippling this alternative export route (1:10, 14:38).
US and Saudi Response: Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman sought direct US military assistance from President Donald Trump to address the Houthi threat, but the request for air strikes was denied (15:15, 15:36). The Trump administration intends to keep forces focused on Iran and the Strait of Hormuz rather than opening a new front in Yemen (15:40).
Economic Impact: While the US had made recent progress in reducing the effectiveness of Iran's blockade in the Strait of Hormuz (17:04, 19:34), the Houthi gains around the Bab al-Mandab strait threaten to negate these economic relief efforts for the global energy market (20:03, 22:25).


Saudi Arabia is in serious trouble. Dubai is toast. EU is in full blown panic. Cool and normal.

[Dr Strangelove]

Troops leaked photos of their wrecked bases to CBS, saying they're "standing there with our eyes closed getting punched in the face"

Active service members sent the images anonymously.

One soldier's words: "We're not defending these bases. We're just watching them get destroyed."

What the photos reportedly show:

-Prince Sultan Air Base, Saudi Arabia: an E-3 Sentry with its tail severed from a charred fuselage

-Prince Sultan Air Base: hollowed-out buildings and barracks standing beside untouched concrete T-walls, fortifications built for mortars and grenades in a war fought from 300 miles up

-Camp Buehring, Kuwait: rows of trailers destroyed at the main staging area for Army ground troops and armor

-Camp Buehring: vehicles burned out in the open

-Camp Arifjan, Kuwait: structural damage to a building at the largest American logistics hub in the region

-The IG counted nearly 60 aircraft lost and $3.7 billion in equipment across eight countries.

Hegseth called the missiles that killed six at Shuaiba "squirters," a word for the odd one that slips past a working defense.

These photos say the defense isn't working, and the people inside the wire know it.

[Dr Strangelove]

Breaking: #Saudi Air Defense intercepted and destroyed a drone that entered #Mecca's airspace. The Saudi-led military coalition in #Yemen says the "attempt to target Mecca with a drone will remain a black mark in the record of Houthi violations" and that the security of the holy sites in Mecca and Madina "is a red line."

#Iran's Iraqi and Yemeni militias have tried to target the Mecca region since 2017 with missiles and drones.



Mecca is now in play