BC Provicial Election on October 24th

[hitest]

https://elections.bc.ca/2026-provincial-election/

[hitest]

Okay! Prediction time! Who's going to win? I think the NDP will remain in power.

[Dr Strangelove]

Shift in Polling: The BC Conservatives have gained momentum, now holding an 8-point lead over the BC NDP, reversing a previous deficit (0:55-1:29).
Voter Priorities: The poll indicates that voters are primarily concerned with the cost of living (59%) and healthcare (42%), rather than the topics currently emphasized by Premier David Eby, such as trade wars (1:39-2:04).
Campaign Strategy: Correspondents note that David Eby’s campaign has struggled with a "flat" delivery and a focus on metaphors that have not resonated with the electorate (7:16-7:43, 11:15-11:47). Meanwhile, the BC Conservatives and their leader, Lorne Doerkson, are benefiting from a low-key, relatable image, though many voters remain unfamiliar with him (4:44-4:56, 8:18-8:31).
High Volatility: With 20% of the electorate undecided, the outcome remains uncertain. Both experts suggest the NDP will need to pivot their messaging toward economic concerns to recover (4:59-5:09, 12:32-13:00).



Early days but high unfavorables for both cons and NDP. Eby called this and fumbled the message. Both DRIPA and Trump are low on the radar for voters, they care about economy and cost of living. Whoever smartents up and focuses on that will win. Nothing focuses the mind like a hanging in the morning. The more the cons talk the less the general public will warm to them. Eby called this because his own caucus was going to boot him. 5 have already said they will not run so you can imagine how many knives were out already. Doerkson is still an unknown with the general public but as his record comes out a lot will turn on him, privatizing healthcare and supporting the convoy both black marks on him. Not a huge stretch to associate him with the anti-vax and the separatists from there. Right now it's too close to call who will win. Next 2 weeks are critical.

[hitest]

Shift in Polling: The BC Conservatives have gained momentum, now holding an 8-point lead over the BC NDP, reversing a previous deficit (0:55-1:29).

Hopefully the race tightens as we approach election day. I don't relish the thought of a Conservative government.

[Dr Strangelove]

If people thought the NDP were a disorganized shambles not ready for prime time, as the joker said:

[Dr Strangelove]

NDP War Room in Massive Panic Over the Greens

The @bcndp isn’t obsessing over the 43–35 @Conservative_BC lead @angusreidorg released yesterday.

The real internal focus right now is on these specific numbers:

1) The @BCGreens polling at 14%.
2) 10% of 2024 NDP voters have already moved to the Greens.
3) Only 62% of 2024 NDP voters currently say they’ll support the NDP again.

With @One_BC barely registering, the potential vote-split problem is increasingly on the left.

It's early, but watch for @Dave_Eby to shift focus to @Emily_Lowan with the tired fearmongering argument that a vote for the Greens risks a Conservative government.

But this strategy, which MANY of his top advisors are currently pushing, presents major problems for Eby.

First, the @KerryLynneFindl scary Trumpian Conservative target is gone. Selling that same threat against the considerably more normal, folksy @LDoerkson is a tougher proposition...one that hasn't worked particularly well thus far.

More importantly, 54% of British Columbians now say it is time for a change in government, including nearly 1/4 of people who voted NDP in 2024.

That means Eby's trying to convince voters who actively want change that their only acceptable choice is four more years of the government they want changed.