Politalk.ca

Here’s my elevator ready version of how it works in Canadian elections. It has held up pretty well over the years.

One third won’t vote. One third already always know which party they will vote for.

Elections are decided by the other third. The swing voters.

Swing voters don’t follow politics every day. They don’t notice the drama, don’t watch the TV shows about politics, and pay only light attention to the news. The biggest political events will grab their attention, but only hold it for a small amount of time.

They are living their lives, otherwise. Raising families, paying bills, hoping for a vacation, wishing for less stress.

Politics adds, rather than subtracts stress. Elections are not a game for these people, and politics is a mostly uninteresting sport.

They want politicians who embrace the idea of service, not celebrity. They prefer the smarter, over the simpler. Careful, not fearful. Bold, not reckless.

For them, the country just had an election, and they’ve been satisfied enough with the outcome. Having another election now seems like a waste of time and money.

A lot of the commentary in the political bubble is about how “impatient people are for a deal with Trump”. But unlike dedicated partisans, swing voters are not scrolling their social feeds anxiously awaiting the breakthrough. They are living their lives.

They see a lot of Donald Trump and they know he is a challenge for much of the rest of the world, and for many Americans as well. When things go badly with Trump, these Canadians don’t ask “how could we have screwed this up”, they’re dismayed at America’s leadership, and the more they want to lean in on “economic diversification and resilience”, political-speak for “let’s not have to worry about American mood swings as much in the future.”

Some argue that voters have a countdown clock in their minds, and that grocery and shelter prices have to materially decline within weeks or months, otherwise the country will demand another election and choose a different outcome. Based on our research, this is exaggerated, a made-for-punditry drama.

There’s plenty of frustration with the cost of living. But equal awareness that this is problem not only in Canada, and one that will take time to ease.

Swing voters will have a few takeaways from next week’s budget. They won’t consume it in detail. They might like it, or dislike it, but hating a budget usually only happens because it contains tax hikes. Bigger deficits, especially if people believe the money is being spent on things that will be useful, rarely trigger a political revolt.

Opposition parties have plenty of ways to express their unhappiness with the budget, without forcing an election. They can, simply, acknowledge that voters just elected a government, and don’t want an election again so soon. All while vividly and loudly decrying the bits they don’t like.

This isn’t complicated. If an election happens, it will be because the opposition parties decided to cause one. And take the risk that swing voters will be happy that they made that choice. I have my doubts.

testerone wrote: Sat Nov 01, 2025 3:51 pm Oh come on.... the NDP is 'considering' to commit suicide. The Tories are anxious to head to the polls with their leader at the lowest point possible in the polls. The turkeys just can't wait fpr Christmas to come!
Maybe in Peepee LePew's fever dreams Elizabeth May sides with his anti-environment policies too....