Key finding
April 2026: Canadian visits to the U.S. rose 1.4% year‑over‑year, the first increase since early 2025.
This marks the end — at least temporarily — of a 15‑month slide triggered by political tensions, tariffs, and President Trump’s “51st state” remarks.
What’s driving the increase?
1. Car travel is rebounding
+5.8% increase in car return trips in April 2026.
Land crossings are recovering faster than air travel, which remains down.
2. Air travel is still weak
–8.1% decline in air trips compared to April 2025.
This suggests Canadians are more comfortable with short, discretionary cross‑border trips than longer U.S. vacations.
Why this matters
A possible end to the boycott — or just stabilization?
The increase is small but symbolically important. Analysts note that declines have been shrinking for months:
Month (2026 vs 2025) Decline in Canadian visits
January –22%
February –12.5%
March –7.6%
April +1.4% (first increase)
This pattern suggests the boycott is stabilizing, not fully reversing.
Economic impact
U.S. tourism regions — especially New York State and the Adirondacks — have lost millions due to the drop in Canadian visitors. Even a modest rebound is significant for border economies.
How this fits with newer May 2026 dataA separate StatsCan release shows:
May 2026: Canadian return trips to the U.S. up 9.5% year‑over‑year
Driven by +15.1% increase in car travel
Air travel still down 5.5%
This reinforces the April trend: land travel is recovering first.
