Politalk.ca

My two cents on the impact of Venezuela for the Canadian oil sector:
-Mildly bullish in the short term as Venezuela has shut in heavy oil production amidst the chaos
-Capital is cowardly and shy and I don’t think Venezuela will be a particularly attractive destination for a while. It has experienced poor governance and corruption for a long time, has a history of nationalizing industry, and there will be a large socialist faction even more radicalized against the USA. I think Brazil, Guyana and GoM are still more important competitors for capital
-Another reason why we should build a NW BC pipeline to Asian markets in the medium term
-Most Canadian oil goes to the Midwest, not the Gulf, although a faster than expected Venezuelan recovery would be bad for the WCS differential

One of the first actions taken by Canada’s new government in March 2025 was to impose additional sanctions on Nicolás Maduro’s brutally oppressive and criminal regime — unequivocally condemning his grave breaches of international peace and security, gross and systematic human rights violations, and corruption. Canada has not recognised the illegitimate regime of Maduro since it stole the 2018 election. The Canadian government therefore welcomes the opportunity for freedom, democracy, peace, and prosperity for the Venezuelan people.

Canada has long supported a peaceful, negotiated, and Venezuelan-led transition process that respects the democratic will of the Venezuelan people. In keeping with our long-standing commitment to upholding the rule of law, sovereignty, and human rights, Canada calls on all parties to respect international law. We stand by the Venezuelan people’s sovereign right to decide and build their own future in a peaceful and democratic society.

Canada attaches great importance to resolution of crises through multilateral engagement and is in close contact with international partners about ongoing developments. We are first and foremost ready to assist Canadians through our consular officials and our embassy in Bogotá, Colombia, and will continue to support Venezuelan refugees.

Cuba's Urgent Quest for Oil: Who Will Replace Venezuela?

Cuba needs 110,000–120,000 barrels/day, Cuba produces only 40,000 barrels/day domestically, so it must import the rest. In 2025, Russia sent only 6,000 barrels/day. Mexico’s shipments dropped from 23,000 barrels/day last year to 2,500 barrels/day in 2025. Reason: Mexico must maintain good relations with the U.S., which buys 85% of its exports.

China can float loans but can't send oil. Cuba's position without a supplier means they will have economic collapse this year.