Politalk.ca

This was a rough day for US aviation.

Aside from the downed F-15E Strike Eagle, an A-10 Thunderbolt II was lost. The A-10 was part of the rescue mission, but was severely damaged during the operation and later crashed in Kuwait.

The two HH-60G choppers sustained damage. Thankfully no human casualties, but one F-15 crew member is still out there.

Furthermore, a MQ-9 was destroyed.


Worst day since Vietnam.

BREAKING: The E-4B Nightwatch, the aircraft the Pentagon calls the National Airborne Operations Center and the press calls the Doomsday Plane, landed at Joint Base Andrews on April 3 after departing Offutt Air Force Base in Nebraska. The President’s briefings were cancelled. National security meetings were convened. On the same day, the first American fighter jet was shot down over Iran, ceasefire talks collapsed, and the largest visible airlift of the war began crossing the Atlantic.

The E-4B is a modified 747 hardened against electromagnetic pulse, carrying a battle staff of over 100, designed to serve as an airborne command post if ground communications are destroyed. Four exist. They rotate so one is always within minutes of the President. When one moves from Offutt to Andrews, it positions closer to the White House. The movement is technically routine. The timing is not.

C-17 Globemaster transports are crossing the Atlantic in waves, supported by KC-135 Stratotankers, carrying troops, armoured vehicles, and heavy equipment to staging bases in Europe and the eastern Mediterranean. OSINT flight tracking confirms a second wave over Europe heading toward the Gulf. Over 100 C-17 sorties have been observed since the war began, but the April 3 movement is the largest single visible surge. The airlift predates the F-15E loss. The acceleration does not.

Here is what the movement means when placed against the day it occurred. The F-15E was shot down and the weapons systems officer is missing. The A-10 took fire and crashed in Kuwait. The rescue helicopters were hit by small arms. Iran rejected the ceasefire and called US demands unacceptable. The Pakistan channel is dead. The 48-hour ceasefire proposal was rejected. Vance’s back-channel produced no breakthrough. The April 6 power-plant deadline expires Monday evening. Markets close today and do not reopen until Monday morning. And the Doomsday Plane is at Andrews.

The E-4B does not mean nuclear escalation is imminent. It means the National Command Authority wants its airborne command post within range of the President during a weekend in which every variable in the war shifted simultaneously. The fighter is down. The diplomacy is dead. The deadline is live. The airlift is surging. And the aircraft designed to survive the end of communications is parked at the base closest to the man who decides what happens next.

Three generals were fired this week. Twenty-six officers in fourteen months. The Army Chief was replaced without explanation by a general whose primary credential is carrying the nuclear briefcase. The chain of command was reshaped before the worst day of the war, not after. The E-4B landed after. The sequence matters: you clear the chain of command first, then you position the aircraft that executes through it.

Nobody connects these threads because each has a routine explanation. The E-4B moves regularly. The C-17s have flown since February. The generals were fired for “efficiency.” The deadline has been postponed twice. But routine stops being routine when every thread converges on the same 72 hours in which an American pilot is missing, the ceasefire is dead, the power-plant strikes are scheduled, and the Doomsday Plane is at Andrews.

The weekend has no market. The deadline has no extension. The pilot has no confirmed rescue. And the aircraft designed for the scenario nobody wants to name is closer to the President than it was yesterday.

BREAKING: A massive line of US Air Force C-17 transport aircraft is currently crossing the Atlantic toward the Middle East, alongside KC-135 refueling tankers. A second wave is already over Europe heading for the eastern Mediterranean. C-17s carry troops, armored vehicles and heavy equipment. This is the largest visible airlift movement since the war began.

The Doomsday Plane landed at Andrews tonight for a reason. This may be it.

Here’s what is known so far about U.S. Air Force losses during Operation Epic Fury:

Total losses are estimated to exceed $2 billion, with replacement costs potentially even higher.

— Four F-15E Strike Eagles have been lost, one over Iran and three downed by friendly fire over Kuwait.

— An A-10 Warthog was shot down while providing close air support (CAS) for combat search and rescue (CSAR) operations.

— An F-35 Lightning II fighter aircraft was damaged by an Iranian surface-to-air missile (SAM).

— An E-3 Sentry AWACS aircraft was completely destroyed at Prince Sultan Air Base in Saudi Arabia.

— Two KC-135R aerial refueling aircraft have crashed, including one destroyed at Prince Sultan Air Base.

— Six additional tankers were damaged, one in an incident over Iraq and five at Prince Sultan Air Base.

— 17 MQ-9 Reaper drones have crashed or been shot down by Iranian forces since February 28.

— One HH-60M helicopter was damaged in an FPV drone attack on Camp Victory in Iraq.

— Two HH-60W helicopters were damaged during CSAR operation in Iran.

We are now facing the biggest global energy crisis in history:

Total oil product exports from the Middle East plunged -63% in March, or -4.8 million barrels per day, to ~2.8 million barrels per day.

Of the remaining ~2.8 million barrels per day still being exported, ~1.1 million barrels per day, or 39%, is flowing through Saudi Arabia's Red Sea ports, bypassing the shut Strait of Hormuz.

Jet fuel was hit the hardest, with exports plunging -85%, triggering flight cancellations and fuel shortages across Asia-Pacific.

At the same time, LPG and naphtha exports dropped by -1.0 million barrels per day.

Diesel, gasoline, and fuel oil exports also fell sharply, with declines ranging from -60% to -70%.

The Strait of Hormuz crisis is in full-swing.

Bloomberg reports that U.S. has used almost its entire stock of JASSM-ER stealth cruise missiles against Iran, drawing even from reserves allocated for other operations such as a potential conflict with China.

Out of the total 2,300 before the war only arround 425 would remain globally.