Politalk.ca

For the first time in a century, the Canadian Armed Forces are reportedly formally modeling a military assault and invasion by the United States.

The planning openly contemplates irregular warfare, sabotage, drones, and shadow conflict as tools to suppress an occupied population. To prepare, officials are said to be studying past insurgencies, recasting Canada itself as a country that is increasingly “hostile” to U.S. interests.

Europe's far-right parties, often praised by Trump administration, push back on Greenland

Leaders of AfD, National Rally and Reform UK not shy on criticism of U.S. tactics over Greenland

America vs. the World

President Trump wants to return to the 19th century’s international order. He will leave America less prosperous—and the whole world less secure.



Worse than the Suez crisis that rendered the UK empire defunt.

https://www.linkedin.com/posts/larsjens ... =copy_link
This is a rare second update on the same day (19 January), but developments regarding Greenland does warrant some additional contemplation.

Latest development at time of writing is that Trump has stated on Truth Social in relation to Greenland:”[...] Now it is time, and it will be done!!!”

And he has sent a letter to the Norwegian Prime Minister stating: “Considering your Country decided not to give me the Nobel Peace Prize for having stopped 8 Wars PLUS, I no longer feel an obligation to think purely of Peace, although it will always be predominant, but can now think about what is good and proper for the United States of America. [...] The World is not secure unless we have Complete and Total Control of Greenland.”

Ideally, we should hope this gets resolved, but given the development in the last week it is also prudent to consider the ramifications of a worst-case scenario where US takes over Greenland without consent and how that could impact the container shipping sector. (As my focus here is mainly container shipping)

Several key elements are then worth keeping in mind:

Maersk would have a problem in relation to Maersk Line Limited which operates US-flag vessels and services the US military. The same applies to CMA CGM through APL as France has voiced strong support for Denmark and Greenland in this matter, although Maersk’s placement in Denmark will amplify the issue for the Danish carrier.

Should the EU decide to act as a single entity, which they might, this would extend beyond using the “trade bazooka”. Note by the way that the “trade bazooka” only requires qualified majority and not unanimity.

EU could well adopt the position that a take-over of Greenland is no different then the attempted Russian take-over of Ukraine. This opens the door for similar sanctions which in that case would include freezing and/or seizing assets owned by key people in the government.

Opening the toolbox of sanctions also opens the option of making it illegal for EU-owned and controlled vessels and shipping companies to service the US. The ramifications for shipping globally will be extreme beyond anything seen after WW2.

Note that this is speculatory worst-case scenario and I sincerely hope it will no come to this – but given recent developmentsit appears nothing is presently truly off the table.

Canada is serious

Fading Rules-Based Order: The decline of the traditional rules-based international order, suggesting that powerful nations are increasingly acting on their own interests, forcing weaker nations to accommodate.
The Power of the Powerless : Drawing on Vaclav Havel's essay, explains how systems are sustained not by truth, but by people's willingness to perform as if they were true. It argues that this "living within a lie" makes systems fragile when individuals stop complying.

Neoliberalism and its Consequences: The absence of the Soviet Union as a counterweight led to an "explosion of neoliberalism" in Western countries. This removed safeguards and regulations, leading to the destruction of social safety nets and a decrease in labor rights.

Canada's Strategic Shift: Canada's recognition of this new reality and its shift in strategic posture, termed "value-based realism." This approach aims to be both principled and pragmatic, prioritizing broad engagement and the "value of our strength" rather than solely relying on the "strength of our values."