Climate change thread

[Dr Strangelove]

Covid brought the world oil production down 8 million barrels a day. We are already down twice that and it will get worse.

The Current Situation (0:00 - 2:52):

The host outlines a fictional, high-stakes scenario starting in 2026 involving conflict in the Middle East and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, leading to global energy shortages and economic instability.
Historical Context (2:52 - 11:13):

The 1973 oil crisis is examined as a turning point. While the Netherlands and North America both faced impacts, their responses diverged significantly.
The Netherlands pivoted toward cycling and public transit, famously utilizing "car-free Sundays" and responding to public protests against road dominance.
In the US and Canada, despite some transit investments like Calgary's C-Train and Vancouver's SkyTrain, car-centric suburbia remained firmly entrenched.
Policy Responses and Alternatives (11:13 - 18:16):

The host highlights two ways governments handle oil dependency: increasing supply (often reinforcing the status quo) or finding alternatives.
The video advocates for moving away from fossil fuels, emphasizing the efficiency of modern technology like induction hobs, heat pumps, and solar energy over the inherent wastefulness of internal combustion engines.
Conclusion: Why Cities Must Change (18:16 - 20:41):

The host posits that suburbia is uniquely vulnerable to expensive oil. Conversely, human-scale, walkable cities—integrated with electrified public transit—are more resilient and provide a higher quality of life.
The video concludes that when the current status quo becomes unsustainable, it creates the necessary political and social pressure to build better, more efficient cities.

[Dr Strangelove]

[al_keda]

[Dr Strangelove]

Canadian flood risk portal doesn't work yet and doesn't consider climate change: report

Love the pace of government... like flooding isn't foreseeable

The portal doesn’t work yet, despite being promised years ago.

It will launch without climate‑change data, making it of limited utility for homeowners, planners, and insurers.

Flood mapping nationwide is far behind schedule, with fewer than half of funded projects covering the highest‑risk areas.

Only 11 flood maps have been published so far, out of 131 projects.

80% of populated areas in Canada lie at least partly within flood‑hazard zones.

[al_keda]

Some of the Feds largest cuts have been to Service Canada. Service Canada is in part responsible for managing the technology the government runs on.

That's why there is no site yet. The people that are left are too busy keeping the lights on to add more lights.

[Dr Strangelove]

Global vs. US Trends: The video presents data (1:00-2:18) showing that while countries like Norway, China, and various European nations are rapidly adopting battery-electric and hybrid vehicles, the United States is an outlier where internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicle sales have seen a resurgence under the current administration.
Ideological Criticism: The narrator argues that conservative governments, specifically citing the current US administration and Daniel Smith’s government in Alberta, are engaging in an "ideological war" against renewable energy (3:00-5:00). He claims these leaders prioritize the fossil fuel industry while actively obstructing wind and solar projects through policy restrictions like "viewscape" prohibitions.
Economic Consequences: The video asserts that Alberta has seen a massive decline in renewable investment (5:55-6:30) and suffers from high electricity costs because of its reliance on burning natural gas for power. The narrator links this to the lack of manufacturing investment in the province compared to Ontario and Quebec.
The Path Forward: Kellerman concludes that Canada should move toward an electrified, integrated national grid—leveraging Quebec, Ontario, and British Columbia’s hydro resources—to insulate the economy from global oil shocks and geopolitical instability (11:10-12:35).
Conclusion:
The narrator suggests that while the current Honda project is shelved, the transition to EVs is inevitable as other global economies modernize. He frames the current stall as a result of political rhetoric that creates the very market problems (such as low demand) that conservatives then use to justify their opposition to green technology.

It's in the name. CON's don't plan for new they bank on OLD and double down. They have to be dragged, kicking and screaming, into the future.

[Dr Strangelove]

Evisceration of Environmental Laws: Anna Johnston of West Coast Environmental Law and other advocates characterize these proposals as the most significant weakening of environmental protections in Canadian history, potentially exceeding the impacts of the 2012 changes under the Harper government (3:44-4:12, 9:08-9:18).
Federal Economic Zones: Critics argue these would allow the cabinet to handpick areas for industrial development, effectively creating "sacrifice zones" where environmental regulations are bypassed for corporate profit (4:49-5:25).
Species at Risk: Environmental advocates warn that the proposals would allow for the exemption of projects from the 'Jeopardy test,' potentially granting companies a "blank check" that could lead to the extinction or extirpation of species (5:25-7:15).
Impact Assessments: The government is proposing to exempt certain pipelines from rigorous federal impact assessments and allow for project pre-approval before routes are finalized, which critics say removes public oversight and fails to properly consider the rights of Indigenous groups (7:18-8:38).
Political Context:

Former environment minister Steven Guilbeault discusses his concerns with these proposals, noting that he has heard from other Liberal MPs who share his alarm regarding the direction the party is taking (0:00-0:20, 1:45-2:22, 9:18-10:26).
The video concludes by highlighting the skepticism of experts who argue that these changes are unlikely to speed up projects and may instead lead to increased litigation (10:26-11:17).

[Dr Strangelove]

Current Status of the Pacific (2:19-3:36): The climate system has shifted away from a La Niña phase, which dominated for the past couple of years. Scientists are observing a significant buildup of heat beneath the ocean surface in the western Pacific, which is primed to move eastward as Kelvin waves, signaling an impending transition to El Niño.
The "Super El Niño" Hype (0:54-1:43, 5:23-6:26): While some sensationalist media reports speculate about a "Super El Niño" that could become the strongest in recorded history, the presenter emphasizes that climate modeling is complex. These extreme predictions often run ahead of the available evidence.
The Predictability Barrier (4:47-5:12): A significant challenge in current forecasting is the "spring predictability barrier." During the northern hemisphere spring, climate models naturally show more divergence, making it difficult to confidently predict the exact strength of an El Niño event months in advance.
Global Climate Impact (5:48-6:26, 8:03-8:45): Regardless of whether the event is moderate or extreme, an El Niño acts to release heat from the ocean into the atmosphere. This can exacerbate existing global warming trends, potentially making 2027 one of the hottest years on record.
Broader Context (8:03-8:45): The video underscores that we are operating in a climate system with multiple interacting stresses—ocean warming, atmospheric shifts, and changing circulation patterns—which makes historical comparisons increasingly difficult to rely upon.
Scientific Consensus:

As of May 2026, the equatorial Pacific is transitioning from an ENSO-neutral state toward El Niño. There is a high probability of the event developing by the summer and persisting through the end of the year, which is expected to have significant global weather repercussions.

[Dr Strangelove]

Germany just switched on a solar installation the size of a city. One farm, 1.5 million homes, zero carbon.
The Cottbus Solar Park covers 3,500 hectares of former open-cast coal mining land in Brandenburg. The location was chosen intentionally. Decades of heavy mining left the terrain completely flat and agriculturally useless, meaning zero land conflict for a massive solar rollout. Now, it holds 4.2 million bifacial solar panels generating 2,200 megawatts of power.
The farm produces 2.1 terawatt-hours annually, entirely replacing the output of two coal plants that operated on this exact same dirt until 2022. A dedicated massive transmission line runs the power 140 kilometers straight into Berlin's grid.
Germany isn't stopping here. Their coal-to-solar conversion program targets 47 former mining sites by 2030, taking land that was completely dead and turning it into a 28-gigawatt clean energy machine.

[Dr Strangelove]

Acceleration of Global Warming: Researchers Grant Foster and Stefan Rahmstorf suggest that the rate of global warming has increased from 0.2°C per decade (1970–2015) to approximately 0.35°C per decade since 2015. While some experts attribute this to a reduction in cooling aerosol pollution, others point to natural climate variability like El Niño (1:05–4:41).
AMOC Instability: A new study by Valentin Portmann et al. indicates the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) could weaken by 50% by the end of the century, risking significant regional climate shifts and agricultural disruption (4:43–6:52).
Tipping Point Cascades: Experts like Johan Rockström are warning about the interconnected nature of Earth's systems. Instead of isolated events, tipping points may trigger "cascades" where one system failure feeds into another, potentially pushing the planet toward a "hothouse" trajectory if emissions are not rapidly reduced (6:53–9:52).
Economic Modeling Concerns: There is growing concern that standard economic models fail to account for the non-linear, destructive potential of these climate shifts, leading to an underestimation of risks (9:53–11:10).
Practical Action and Resilience:

Towards the end of the video, the creator emphasizes that individual actions, such as electrifying home heating (heat pumps), insulating homes, and investing in local solar/battery storage, serve a dual purpose. Beyond reducing emissions, these steps enhance personal resilience against energy price shocks and geopolitical instability, especially as fossil fuel dependence becomes an increasing risk (11:11–13:38).