Cuba

[al_keda]

It's just sick.

[Dr Strangelove]

Intelligence Context: While the headline suggests an imminent threat, further reading of the Axios report clarifies that US officials do not believe Cuba is planning an active or immediate strike (1:51-2:02). Instead, these discussions are viewed as defensive strategies in response to deteriorating US-Cuba relations (2:02-2:07, 7:00-7:06).
Foreign Influence: The report notes Cuba has acquired drones and technology from Russia and Iran (2:36-2:40, 7:16-7:20). Stewart notes that while these partnerships are not surprising, he has not seen corroboration for allegations that Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has advisors on the ground training the Cuban military (7:26-7:40).
The "Iraq" Comparison: Newsweek reported on pushback from critics who compare this intelligence assessment to the lead-up to the Iraq War, suggesting the information could be used as a pretext for conflict or political pressure (6:22-7:06).
Military Reality: Stewart analyzes the technical capabilities of common drones like the Shahed 136 and Samad family, noting their range could theoretically cover much of the US eastern seaboard (8:35-10:16). However, he argues that because of the drones' slow speed and the concentration of potential launch sites on an island, the US military would be well-positioned to defend against such an attack (11:27-13:26).
Stewart concludes that while the drone stockpile is significant, the situation does not seem to have changed overnight, and the media attention surrounding the May 17th report suggests a potential increase in focus on Latin American regional security in the near future (13:28-14:06).

[Dr Strangelove]

Administration Justifications: The video outlines several reasons provided by the administration for its hardline stance, including claims that Cuba hosts signals intelligence for adversaries, accepts military advisers, has sent troops to fight for Russia in Ukraine, and has acquired hundreds of drones (0:32-0:57). Secretary of Defense Hagsth and CIA officials have emphasized these issues as "problematic" threats to U.S. national security (0:57-1:30).
Escalation and Legal Actions: The administration is reportedly moving to unseal an indictment against former Cuban leader Raul Castro related to the 1996 downing of planes associated with a non-profit organization (1:30-1:44).
The Counter-Argument: The creator argues that these justifications are standard "business as usual" activities for many nations (2:45-3:08). Furthermore, they note that the Cuban government maintains that its actions are protected under international law for self-defense against external aggression (1:44-2:25).
Historical Context: The video highlights that the U.S. has a long history of military intervention in Cuba—including occupations and covert operations—over the last 130 years, which contextualizes why Cuba might be preparing for potential conflicts, such as planning around Guantanamo (3:09-3:32).
Critical Questions for Foreign Policy:
The creator concludes by urging viewers to scrutinize these objectives, posing two primary questions: Is this a genuine foreign policy goal or a dated relic of the Cold War? And, if previous presidents identified these issues but declined to act, why is it being pursued now, and is it a potentially reckless idea with significant foreseeable risks? (3:34-4:32).

Pretext for strikes.

[Dr Strangelove]

[Dr Strangelove]

I was wonder when the US would do something so over the top it would get the attention of the mainstream. But the fact they are doing a Jim Crow to Hassan makes me think they will just do what they always do.

[Dr Strangelove]

Increasing Pressure: The Trump administration has ramped up a "maximum pressure" campaign against Cuba (5:55-6:01). This includes strict economic sanctions, an executive order declaring Cuba an "extraordinary threat to US national security" (6:18-6:23), and 30% tariffs on countries supplying oil to the island (6:26-6:33).
Economic Crisis: Due to these sanctions and a severe lack of fuel imports, Cuba is facing its worst economic crisis since the 1990s (7:41-7:44). Basic services—including medical care, power, and waste collection—are suffering from widespread shortages and outages (7:47-8:21).
Political Motivations: The policy is driven both by Trump’s desire for a political "win" to rally his support base (0:37-0:50) and by Secretary of State Marco Rubio, for whom the issue is deeply personal due to his heritage (13:51-14:03).
Diplomatic and Military Options: While diplomatic channels remain open—as evidenced by a recent State Department delegation visit (9:08-9:14)—the Pentagon is reportedly preparing military options (8:45-8:50). These range from increased surveillance and naval drills to potential air strikes or special operations raids (10:55-11:30).
Context and Challenges
Historical Context: The video outlines the history of US-Cuba relations, from the Castro era through the Obama administration’s attempted normalization (4:30-4:49) and Trump's subsequent reversal of those efforts (5:27-5:47).
The Compensation Hurdle: A primary point of friction is the US demand for compensation for assets confiscated after the 1959 revolution, estimated at $9-10 billion (9:26-10:41). Havana is currently unable to meet these financial demands (10:44-10:47).
Uncertain Future: Because there is no obvious successor within the current Cuban system capable of or willing to implement systemic liberalization (12:13-12:28), the path toward a stable political transition remains highly unpredictable and dangerous.