Russia is failing to achieve its strategic goals in Ukraine, and Russia is significantly more dangerous to Europe today than it was before 2022.
Ukraine's ability to hold off Russian forces has lulled Europeans into a false sense of security.
Underestimating Russia because of its stumbles in Ukraine is a critical mistake. Russia is diminished in long-term economic potential, but its military is far more experienced, dangerous, and adapted to modern warfare than it was four and a half years ago.
Moscow operates a war economy that produces more ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, glide bombs, strike drones, and interceptors than all EU countries combined. In unmanned warfare, Russia maintains a significant lead in technology, quantity, and trained personnel. Its military even has an unmanned systems branch.
It is dangerous to assume European militaries can replicate Ukraine's resilience. Ukraine benefited from eight years of war preparation in the Donbas, deep Soviet equipment reserves, and a large population forced to innovate rapidly under fire. Most European nations lack the stockpiles, reserves, population size, and operational preparations required for modern attritional combat.
Without major US support, European forces would struggle to reinforce the Baltics through the heavily targeted Suwalki Gap, Baltic Sea, and skies.
If Russia launches a new mobilization or if the fighting in Ukraine freezes at some point in the future, a rearmed Russia will present an even greater threat to the rest of the continent. Europe cannot rely on wishful thinking.
European countries need to urgently build out stockpiles of interceptors, cruise missiles, ballistic missiles, and long-range strike drones while learning directly from Ukrainian combat experience. The more we work with Ukraine the better.
Good post linked to this by @kriegsforscherD
The largest Wildberries logistics hub in all of Russia has been finally destroyed.